Pin Sheet: Charles Schwab Challenge

Another Texas event? Alright alright alright.

Welcome back to the Pin Sheet, our weekly data-informed preview of the PGA Tour.

We return to the Lone Star State for the fourth time this season and the second in four weeks. This time, it’s the Charles Schwab Challenge, held at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth. Scores here won’t be nearly as high as our last stop in the Dallas area (Scottie Scheffler’s record-setting -31 at the Byron Nelson), with recent winning scores ranging from -8 to -14.

It’s a more standard preview this time, so we’ll see if we can make up for last week with some good fits this time around. Speaking of last week, let’s get right into our recap.

Checking Our Scorecard

1. Rory McIlroy - T47(+3)

   1. The Quail Hollow specialist wasn’t himself this week, especially with his ballstriking. He only gained 0.25 shots off the tee and actually lost 0.55 in approach, and only made the cut thanks to an unbelievable 3.85 strokes gained with his short game alone in the second round.

2. Scottie Scheffler - 1(-11)

   1. Look what happens when Scottie doesn’t get arrested at the PGA Championship (last Scottie arrest joke, I promise). Scheffler grabbed the lead with an eagle on 14 and a birdie on 15 Saturday, and never gave it up. Had a couple of blips early on Sunday, but was rock-solid down the stretch to seal the win in dominant fashion. His worst SG category this week was a 0.66 in putting, and he gained over four shots total on the field. He’s won all three of his majors by at least three shots now. That’s just absurd.

3. Bud Cauley - T72(+10)

   1. After a heroic closing stretch on Friday to make the cut on the number, Cauley faded over the weekend for a disappointing finish. In a departure from his performances this season, his two strongest SG categories this season (approach and putting) were his two worst this week.

4. Justin Thomas - MC(+3)

   1. JT was a painful watch. He couldn't get anything going off the tee Thursday, then couldn’t hit a green Friday. His short game was excellent, with a total of 1.04 strokes gained in around-the-green and putting. It wasn’t able to save him, though.

5. Akshay Bhatia - MC(+2)

   1. Bhatia got off to a solid start but fell victim to the Green Mile in Charlotte. Sitting at -1 through 15 holes on Friday and comfortably inside the cutline, he parred 16 before putting his tee shot into the water on 17 en route to a double-bogey and bogeying 18 to miss the cut by one shot. His putting was unbelievable, gaining 2.70 strokes on the greens, but he lost 2.09 strokes everywhere else.

6. Sami Valimaki -MC( +9)

   1. -2.73 SG: APP. That should say it all for the Finn, who never stood a chance this week.

7. Tyrrell Hatton - T60(+6)

   1. Hatton worked his way to even par and contention through three rounds, but a disastrous final round where he lost almost five shots on the field sent him tumbling down the leaderboard.

8. Daniel Berger - T33(E)

   1. Berger was very strong in the ballstriking categories, but couldn't cash it in on the greens. He posted an SG: PUTT of -0.57 for the week.

9. Collin Morikawa - T50(+4)

   1. In an uncharacteristic week for Collin, his SG: APP for the tournament was -0.55. His short game was impressive, but it’s hard for him to win when his biggest strength (his accuracy) suddenly becomes a liability.

10. Patrick Cantlay -MC(+6)

    1. Cantlay just didn’t have it in Charlotte. With an SG: APP of -0.43 and SG: PUTT of -0.79, he was never in with a chance this week.

Yikes. No other way to put it. Getting the winner is always great, but with no other top 20s, this week falls short of success for us. That said, it was a week of outliers, with several favorites disappearing off the radar and surprising charges from unexpected players (looking at you, Alex Noren and Davis Riley).

Still, our Ideal Player Profile held up. The common thread among top finishers at Quail Hollow was approach play, and only two players who finished in the top 10 did so without recording an SG: APP of at least 0.5. Both were boosted by hot putting weeks, and in the case of Bryson DeChambeau, a driver firing on all cylinders. That, at the very least, is proof of our process.

Course Conditions

Ideal Player Profile:

• SG_OTT: 0.595

• SG_APP: 0.966

• SG_ARG: 0.335

• SG_PUTT: 0.978

New to strokes gained or wondering how we build these profiles?
Check out our Tee to Green series to get up to speed before diving in.

Colonial has a lot of history in pro golf. It’s hosted Tour events even before the modern PGA Tour existed, with the first event here being held in 1946. The course was even a US Open site in 1941 before becoming a Tour mainstay, and the event was won five times by Ben Hogan, giving rise to the nickname “Hogan’s Alley”.

A recent renovation returned the layout to its US Open roots, reintroducing water hazards that had vanished after the Trinity River was rerouted due to major flooding (not making this up, the US Army Corps of Engineers legitimately moved the river) and embracing the original, more rugged layout.

This week is a test all about accuracy, and our Ideal Player Profile shows it. The course isn’t particularly long, at 7200 yards for the par-70 layout, but it’s filled with hazards and features more doglegs than you can imagine. Greens are tiny here, with an average green size of 5000 square feet, about 1600 smaller than the Tour average. Uniquely, those greens are bentgrass, making Colonial the rare southern course that doesn’t use Bermuda on its putting surfaces.

You’ll also hear about the “Horrible Horseshoe” plenty this week. The moniker refers to the third, fourth, and fifth holes, which wrap around the driving range in the shape of, believe it or not, a horseshoe and are some of the toughest on the golf course. Hole 5 is especially notorious for its difficulty, routinely ranking as the hardest for the tournament.

I’ll be interested to see how players choose to approach the week. Will they play boldly, pulling driver and taking aggressive lines to cut off as much of these doglegs as they can, or will they take a more measured approach, laying back when necessary and prioritizing positioning rather than distance? It’s a fascinating contrast, and I’m looking forward to seeing how it plays out in Fort Worth.

Pinseekers of the Week

Here are the players in the field who most closely match the ideal profile, with a higher score indicating a better fit:

1. Scottie Scheffler: 1.0200

2. Harris English: 0.7330

3. Bud Cauley: 0.7302

4. Daniel Berger: 0.6766

5. J.T. Poston: 0.6764

6. Maverick McNealy: 0.6571

7. Brian Harman: 0.6403

8. Ryan Gerard: 0.6392

9. Thorbjorn Olesen: 0.6189

10. Jordan Spieth: 0.6088

A lot of technicians are on this week’s list, which isn’t surprising when you take a look at our Ideal Player Profile and its focus on iron play and accuracy.

At this point, it’s more surprising if Scottie Scheffler isn’t at the top of this list. His game speaks for itself, ranking top 30 in every SG category and top 3 in both APP and OTT. His putter has been on a bit of a heater lately, and I’d be shocked if he wasn’t contending this week.

I’d like to congratulate Harris English on graduating from the Draws list to the Pinseekers of the Week list. He’s been playing excellent golf, highlighted by a T2 at the PGA Championship. The irons have been strong, and the putter looks to be coming around now that his caddie is reading putts for him.

Bud Cauley is back, partially as a product of a weaker field but mostly because a rough week in Charlotte doesn’t discount his impressive play this year. We’ll keep an eye on him, though, because we don’t know if this is a one-off or a sign of a decline in form.

Daniel Berger ranks eighth on Tour in total SG, with a well-rounded game that suits Colonial. With a combined 1.3 SG in the ball-striking categories, this course should set up well for him to compete.

J.T. Poston and Thorbjorn Olesen have near identical profiles, with solid iron play and recent form carrying the day, especially for Poston after his excellent PGA Championship.

Maverick McNealy has been riding some solid irons and big-time performances off the tee to an appearance on the Pinseekers list. He’ll be looking for his first win of the season after three top-3 finishes so far.

Ryan Gerard is back on the list after a big ballstriking week, signaling that his slight uptick in form at the Truist may be an indicator of things to come. He gained 2.66 strokes in ballstriking at the PGA Championship, and if he does that again this week, he’ll be right at the top of the leaderboard.

Brian Harman is here for one thing and one thing alone: accuracy. Quality putting doesn’t hurt his case either.

Jordan Spieth once again gets the maximum entertainment award this week. I’m not particularly high on his chances of contention this week, but he’ll at least make things interesting. If he’s able to put himself together and get the irons working, he will be a threat, but can he do it?

Draws and Fades

The Pinseekers list highlights the ten best course fits based on the model. This section looks at the next players who didn’t quite make the top ten but still bring something worth watching. These are the draws: potential sleepers with upside. We’ll also look at the fades: a few players near the bottom of the fit rankings.

Draws

Alex Smalley brings great form into this week, with solid SG: APP and a surge off the tee. He’s had excellent driver accuracy all year, which could prove to be a difference maker at this tight layout.

Tommy Fleetwood is looking to shake off a brutal week on the greens and rebound. He, too, has been very accurate off the tee and ranks 14th on Tour in SG: APP, making him a candidate to contend.

Aaron Rai is in the top 30 in both SG: APP and OTT, and just like our other two Draws, accurate with his driver. I would not be surprised if he makes a run this week.

Fades

Tom Kim has struggled this year and ranks just 64th in SG: APP. It’s hard to trust him at a layout that places such a premium on accuracy, especially with his recent driver struggles.

Kevin Kisner’s irons have not been cooperating this year, and he ranks 195th in SG: APP. Beyond that, his viral shank out of the bunker in TGL a couple of months ago should be concerning enough to avoid him this week.

Camilo Villegas has had a pretty good season with the short game, but his ballstriking has disappointed, and I can’t in good faith say I think he’ll do well at Colonial.

Finishing Out

That’s everything on this week’s Pin Sheet. As a reminder, this model isn’t here to pick winners: it’s here to spotlight the players whose games line up best with what the course demands.

Colonial always delivers a unique test, and I’m excited to see how it contrasts with last week’s bomber-friendly setup at Quail Hollow. It’s a strategic wonderland, and we’ll see who’s up to the task at Hogan’s Alley.

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Enjoy the week, good luck with any picks, and we’ll see you next Tuesday for my hometown event: the Memorial Tournament.

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