Pin Sheet: PGA Championship
The second major of the year
Welcome back to the Pin Sheet, our weekly data-informed preview of the PGA Tour.
This week brings us the year's second major: The PGA Championship at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina. Unlike last week, this course is no stranger to the Tour, having hosted the Truist Championship (formerly the Wells Fargo) almost every year since 2003, except 2017 (when it hosted the PGA Championship), 2022 (the Presidents Cup), and this past week.
Good news for us: we’ve got some actual course data to pull from when we’re making our Ideal Player Profile. Before we dig into that, we’ll start our Pin Sheet by looking back at the just-concluded Truist Championship.
Checking Our Scorecard
Rory McIlroy - T7(-10)
Rory wasn’t great with his irons and really struggled around the greens, but got bailed out by a scalding-hot putter. He had an SG: PUTT of 1.49, but only gained 0.11 on the greens Sunday, keeping him from climbing even higher on the leaderboard.
Russell Henley - T46(-2)
Henley opened with a solid 65, but a 4-over Friday where he lost almost four strokes to the field and a Saturday 72 where he posted an SG: PUTT of -3.86 doomed his chances at contending. A final-round 67 couldn’t save him.
Daniel Berger - T11(-9)
Remember when we said you’d need excellent iron play here? Berger put up an SG: APP of 1.19 for the week, and despite some putting struggles, was able to ride that to a solid finish.
Collin Morikawa - T17(-7)
New caddie, new Collin? After an uncharacteristic third round where he lost almost two shots with his approach play, he rebounded nicely for a top-20 finish, and actually gained shots with his putter, putting up a 1.05 for the week.
Justin Thomas - T2(-14)
JT had a solid all-around week, highlighted by a 1.57 SG: APP, on his way to a T2 finish. He’s got some serious momentum going into Quail Hollow, where he won his first major.
Justin Rose - WD(+7)
A rough week for Rosie. An even par opening round was followed up by a second round 77 and subsequent withdrawal due to illness. Hard to plan for that one. Still, Rose had an SG: PUTT of -2.03 on Thursday and an SG: ARG of -3.85 on Friday, brutal numbers at a course that places such a high value on short game.
Shane Lowry - T2(-14)
A what-could-have-been week, as Lowry held the lead at multiple points Sunday before eventually fading down the stretch and bogeying 18 to lose his chance at forcing a playoff. He still led the field in SG: APP for the week, with a very impressive 1.98.
Ryan Gerard - T42(-3)
Gerard just didn’t have it this week. His strokes gained numbers were middling to flat-out poor across the board, especially off the tee, where he posted a -0.22 for the tournament.
Patrick Cantlay - T4(-12)
Another consistent week for Cantlay, with solid iron play (SG: APP of 1.71) and decent to good stats everywhere else. A Sunday 65, where he gained over four shots on the field, propelled him into the top five in Philly.
Sepp Straka - 1(-16)
Straka joined Rory McIlroy as the only multiple-time winners on Tour this season thanks to quality performances in the two stats our model marked as the most important: approach and putting. Ranking eighth in SG: APP and second in SG: PUTT, Straka was able to get it done on Sunday after a back-and-forth battle with Shane Lowry.
Now that’s more like it. Seven top-20 finishers, including four top-5s this week. As a reminder, we aim for five top-20s every week, so we overperformed, but you won’t catch us complaining about it. No time to rest on our laurels, though: we’ve got a major to preview.
Course Conditions
Ideal Player Profile:
SG_OTT: 0.717
SG_APP: 1.152
SG_ARG: 0.410
SG_PUTT: 1.153
New to strokes gained or wondering how we build these profiles?
Check out our Tee to Green series to get up to speed before diving in.
With plenty of data to draw on, we were able to build our profile from the past three events here, as well as the 2017 PGA Championship to add a bit of that major seasoning.
Talk about ball-striking. A combined +1.869 in the approach and off-the-tee strokes gained categories is massive, and Quail Hollow absolutely demands it. Tight fairways, twists and turns like it’s an M. Night Shyamalan movie, and small landing zones make this a test of every part of your game. The last time we were here for the PGA Championship, the winning score was just -8 (Justin Thomas in 2017).
Quail Hollow is famous for its closing “Green Mile”: holes 16, 17, and 18. They create a brutal finishing stretch. The 16th and 17th are guarded by water with no margin for error, and 18 serves as a monstrous final exam for any would-be contenders.
There’s a lot of Augusta in the venue, and that shouldn’t be surprising. Tom Fazio, one of the most renowned modern golf course architects, did major renovations on both tracks. The original Quail Hollow layout was designed by George Cobb, who did his own series of renovations at Augusta National. As a result, the two courses share a lot of DNA.
Shotmaking will be at a premium, requiring players to hit both draws and cuts to find fairways and access tucked pin positions. It’s a textbook championship course and will demand the very best players have to offer this week if they want to lift the Wanamaker Trophy.
Pinseekers of the Week
Here are the players in the field who most closely match the ideal profile, with a higher score indicating a better fit:
Rory McIlroy: 0.9370
Scottie Scheffler: 0.9310
Bud Cauley: 0.7901
Justin Thomas: 0.7632
Akshay Bhatia: 0.7516
Sami Valimaki: 0.7141
Tyrrell Hatton: 0.6976
Daniel Berger: 0.6946
Collin Morikawa: 0.6908
Patrick Cantlay: 0.6858
In news that will surprise no one, this list is filled with pinpoint ball-strikers and quality putters.
Rory McIlroy has always enjoyed playing at Quail Hollow. He’s won four times here, including his first-ever win on Tour, and he’ll be looking to add a fifth win in Charlotte and a third PGA Championship to his resume. He leads the field in total SG, and his strong ball-striking (a combined 1.97 in off-the-tee and approach) has him primed to make a run here.
Scottie Scheffler, beyond trying to avoid getting arrested at this event for the second year in a row, is looking to win his second event in as many starts. He leads the field in SG: APP and ranks third in SG: OTT, with good enough play on the greens to win it all.
Bud Cauley may seem like a surprising inclusion until you look a bit deeper at his stats. He ranks in the top 25 in both SG: APP and SG: PUTT, the two most important stats based on our Ideal Player Profile. If he can give himself some birdie looks, he may just find himself on top of the leaderboard.
Justin Thomas has a good history at Quail Hollow, picking up his first major here in 2017. He’s also seventh in SG: APP this season, and has gained 1.01 strokes with his short game this year, making him a real threat yet again if he can keep the driver in control. If JT’s hitting fairways, look out.
Akshay Bhatia and Sami Valimaki bring similar profiles into this week. They’ve both been exceptional with the flatstick and have solid enough ballstriking to contend, but could struggle around the greens. Bhatia’s a stronger player off the tee, but Valimaki has the edge with his irons.
Tyrell Hatton is our lone LIV Golf player to make the list, but there’s a reason for his inclusion. Hatton has been solid with his irons and excellent with the putter, with a field-adjusted (which accounts for relative tournament strength and is our best way to compare different tours) SG: PUTT of 0.48.
Daniel Berger and Patrick Cantlay both bring a strong, all-around game to Quail Hollow. Cantlay is a hair stronger in three of the four SG metrics, but Berger’s 0.32 SG: ARG compared to Cantlay’s 0.00 makes him a better fit for the Ideal Player Profile this week.
Collin Morikawa is an iron-play savant, which will surely help him on a course that demands accuracy with every shot. After his best putting performance since the first event of the season, can he keep it rolling and win his second PGA Championship?
Draws and Fades
The Pinseekers list highlights the ten best course fits based on the model. This section looks at the next players who didn’t quite make the top ten but still bring something worth watching. These are the draws: potential sleepers with upside. We’ll also look at the fades: a few players near the bottom of the fit rankings.
Draws
Jordan Spieth has found his form again: absolute cinema on a golf course. This may be a vibes pick, but the vibes are high. He’s on here more for the storyline of his Grand Slam chase, but his SG numbers are strong, and he might just make a run here.
Sepp Straka didn’t quite crack the top 10 after his win at the Truist, but he’s playing some excellent golf. His SG: APP has been greater than 1 in 12 of his 14 starts this year, and who says he can’t win back-to-back events?
Harris English makes the Draws list again, and we may need a tracker for guys who keep showing up on here. He’s had some solid showings with his irons, but his putting is really what’s propping him up. He’ll need it to be a factor this week.
Fades
Sahith Theegala is an unfortunate but fair inclusion here, with a negative SG: APP stat and nowhere near enough made up in the other categories.
Adam Scott just hasn’t had it this year. His SG: APP is only 0.13, which is not a recipe for success in the slightest at a demanding Quail Hollow layout.
Ludvig Aberg has excelled off the tee but struggled everywhere else, making him a tough sell this week. He will have his weeks, but this doesn’t seem like one of them. An SG: APP of 0.04 and SG: PUTT of -0.07 underline the difficulty he may face in Charlotte.
Finishing Out
Major weeks are always appointment viewing on Tour, and this week is no different. Even though we’re in Charlotte every year, it’s still a treat to see Quail Hollow challenge players with a test that takes everything they’ve got. With no margin for error, a classic finishing stretch, storylines galore, and major championship pressure, it’ll be riveting to see how the week unfolds.
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Enjoy the second major of the year, good luck with any picks, and we’ll see you next Tuesday.
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