Pin Sheet: RBC Canadian Open

Quick trip north of the border, eh

Welcome back to the Pin Sheet, our weekly data-informed preview of the PGA Tour.

This week, we head to the land of poutine, Tims, and loonies for the RBC Canadian Open. It’s the third-longest running event on Tour, behind only the Open Championship and U.S. Open. It’s also the tournament responsible for my all-time favorite Tiger Woods shot, so that’s a plus.

Even with a relatively weaker field compared to the Memorial Tournament before it and the U.S. Open after, this should be an entertaining watch at a new venue on Tour. Fans will at least see more action here than at a TFC game.

Speaking of last week, let’s recap it.

Checking Our Scorecard

1. Scottie Scheffler - 1(-10)

   1. This man is Thanos. There’s no other explanation. Scottie is inevitable. I’m convinced only the Avengers can stop him. I don’t even know if that’s enough.

2. Sepp Straka - 3(-5)

   1. Straka is putting together a really solid season, and this week just adds to it. The Austrian gained 2 shots on the field in the ball-striking categories, and his third straight high-quality putting week gives him serious momentum with just one week until the US Open.

3. Collin Morikawa - T20(+2)

   1. Morikawa was once again a strong ball-striker and highly accurate off the tee, hitting 17% more fairways than the rest of the field on average. A third-round 77 featuring balls in the water on back-to-back holes limited his chances at contention, though.

4. Justin Thomas - T31(+5)

   1. JT survived an opening 80 to make the cut, which was impressive to begin with. Two under par rounds had him knocking on the door of the top 20 heading into Sunday, but he couldn’t make a run, losing almost 3 shots on the field with his irons alone in the final round.

5. Xander Schauffele - T25(+4)

   1. Schauffele had a brutal week on the greens. His SG: PUTT of -0.41 undid all his good work with the irons, and his misfiring driver didn’t help either.

6. Viktor Hovland - T25(+4)

   1. After three lackluster rounds, Hovland used a final round 70 to climb 13 spots on the leaderboard. His irons were decent for the week, but an SG: OTT of -0.25 was hard to overcome.

7. Shane Lowry - T23(+3)

   1. Lowry was sitting pretty in 7th heading into the final round, but a front nine that included a double and triple bogey ruined any hopes at contention he had. For the week, Lowry gained two shots in approach play alone, but lost strokes everywhere else.

8. Daniel Berger - MC(+9)

   1. Berger shot 81 on Thursday, and that was pretty much a death sentence for his week. He posted an SG: APP of -0.81 and an SG: PUTT of -1.78 in his two rounds, and that’s never going to do well at Muirfield.

9. Bud Cauley - T39(+7)

   1. Cauley was in a strong position at +1 heading into the weekend, but a pair of 75s dropped him down the leaderboard. Cauley’s ballstriking was excellent. His short game let him down, though, losing nearly two shots for the week. Good news for Bud: he made it into the U.S. Open on Monday at a qualifier in Columbus.

10. Corey Conners - T25(+4)

    1. Conners also shot a 75 in the final round, and his irons let him down hard this week. Conners was excellent off the tee, but an SG: APP of -0.87 made it tough for him to score at a very demanding Muirfield Village layout.

Only three top-20s for the week, but four more players finishing in the 20s and Justin Thomas just outside it make this a better week than we initially thought. Still, we want to do better, and we’ll try to do just that this week.

Course Conditions

Ideal Player Profile:

• SG_OTT: 0.656

• SG_APP: 1.089

• SG_ARG: 0.509

• SG_PUTT: 1.138

• DRIVING_DIST: 297.379

• DRIVING_ACC: 0.600

• GIR: 0.686

New to strokes gained or wondering how we build these profiles?
Check out our Tee to Green series to get up to speed before diving in.

TPC Toronto at Osprey Valley’s North Course (I kid you not, that is its full name), in Caledon, Ontario, is the longest course in the history of this event, sitting at 7,445 yards for the par-70 layout. For context, we were just at a 7,569-yard par 72 and a 7,626-yard par 71 in the last few weeks, so this is right up there. It’s even longer than Oakmont, where we’ll be next week. The point is, driver will absolutely play a factor, even though our Ideal Player Profile may not overtly suggest it.

This course is classic parkland, with average-sized greens, plenty of bunkers, and thick rough separating the fairways from the trees. Designed by great Canadian architect Doug Carrick, it underwent a renovation in 2023 that lengthened it and made it significantly tougher. Players who can give themselves cleaner shots in will have scoring opportunities, and this is somewhere the putters can shine.

A quirk of the Canadian Open every year is “The Rink”, a par-3 that gets set up to look like a hockey rink, with boards lining the hole and a raucous atmosphere. Think 16 at TPC Scottsdale for the Waste Management Open, but hockey jerseys. This year, the 144-yard 14th gets the full rink treatment, and it’ll probably be louder than Scotiabank Arena was during Game 7 this year (Sorry, Leafs fans).

The Canadian Open also awards the Rivermead Cup to the lowest-scoring Canadian in the field every year. Corey Conners is the current holder of it, but he’ll face plenty of challengers looking to claim it for themselves this week.

Pinseekers of the Week

Here are the players in the field who most closely match the ideal profile, with a higher score indicating a better fit:

1. Rory McIlroy: 1.1168

2. Sam Burns: 0.8535

3. Robert Macintyre: 0.8363

4. Corey Conners: 0.8296

5. Thorbjorn Olesen: 0.8269

6. Harry Hall: 0.8123

7. Shane Lowry: 0.8000

8. Eric Cole: 0.7970

9. Keith Mitchell: 0.7891

10. Ryan Fox: 0.7862

There’s not too much of a pattern to this week’s best fits, with some excelling across the board and others standing out in just one category.

You just knew Rory McIlroy would be on top of the list. The two-time champ comes to TPC Toronto after an uncharacteristic struggle at Quail Hollow and skipped the Memorial for the first time since 2017, but he’s still Rory. He ranks second behind only Scottie Scheffler in ballstriking and ninth in putting, making him a threat to win as always.

Sam Burns has been the best putter on Tour this year, and his ball-striking is finally starting to come around. Burns has five top-20s in his last six events, including on two courses that present a similar challenge to this week: Quail Hollow and Muirfield Village.

Robert MacIntyre and Thorbjorn Olesen look very similar statistically at first glance, and not much separates the two. They’ve both got irons on the rise, middling short games, and quality play off the tee, especially the defending champion MacIntyre (14th in SG: OTT).

Corey Conners is bound to be a fan favorite this week. The Canadian brings home-field advantage and a solid profile to this event, ranking 12th in ball-striking and inside the top 50 in putting on Tour. Can he hold on to his Rivermead Cup or even do one better?

Harry Hall’s short game is excellent (third in SG: PUTT, 34th in SG: ARG), and his irons are trending upward. Hall ranks above average in driving distance, which should help on this longer layout. With three top-20s in a row, he’s a good candidate to stay hot.

Shane Lowry has been one of the best iron players on Tour this year, and ranks seventh in SG: Tee to Green (second in the field only to Rory). He’s consistently been near the top of the leaderboard all season (eight top 20s) and figures to be there again this week.

Eric Cole is riding a hot stretch with both his putter and irons, but I’d be wary of him this week. He hasn’t finished in the top 20 since the CJ CUP at the start of May, and below-average driving distance could hamper his chances.

Keith Mitchell and Ryan Fox are both major power hitters. Their irons are both improving, especially the kiwi Fox, and a hot putting week could catapult them up the leaderboard.

Draws and Fades

The Pinseekers list highlights the ten best course fits based on the model. This section looks at the next players who didn’t quite make the top ten but still bring something worth watching. These are the draws: potential sleepers with upside. We’ll also look at the fades: a few players near the bottom of the fit rankings.

Draws

Gary Woodland hits it big, which could be a real asset at this long par-70 course. He’s decent with the irons and putter, but his length off the tee is what will set up his chances to score this week. We’ll see how much he can capitalize.

Similarly to Sam Burns, Sam Ryder is starting to get the irons working and has a putter that’s on fire this week. He ranks 4th in SG: PUTT and has gained at least 0.75 shots with his irons in his last two events.

Nick Taylor has good memories of this event. He made history in 2023 when he made a spectacular eagle putt to win in a playoff and became the first player from Canada to win the Canadian Open since 1954. Coming off a top-5 finish at Muirfield, why can’t he stay hot?

Fades

Alejandro Tosti hits it long, but that’s about it. He has lost -0.15 shots in approach play and has a brutal -0.68 SG: PUTT. It’s hard to score when you’re not hitting scoring shots well. He’d need to get hot on the greens to turn it around.

Adam Hadwin has been having a rough season on Tour, especially over the last few weeks, bad news for diehard fans of Canadian golf. His last top-20 in an individual event came all the way back on Super Bowl Sunday, and with his ranking of 145 in total SG, it’s hard to trust Hadwin here, even if it is his home tournament.

Byeong Hun An has been ice cold since his T23 at the Masters, especially with the irons. His SG: APP of -0.22 makes him a scary proposition, even if his distance off the tee does help here in Caledon.

Finishing Out

That’s everything on this week’s Pin Sheet. As a reminder, this model isn’t here to pick winners: it’s here to spotlight the players whose games line up best with what the course demands.

Whether you’re here for the picks, the insights, or a new lens on golf, we'd love to have you along: please consider subscribing to follow along and leave any thoughts in the comment section.

Enjoy the week, good luck with any picks, and we’ll see you next Tuesday for a major at an iconic venue: The U.S. Open at Oakmont.

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