Pin Sheet: The CJ CUP Byron Nelson
A return to normalcy on Tour
Welcome back to the Pin Sheet, our weekly data-informed preview of the PGA Tour.
We’re in Dallas for the CJ CUP Byron Nelson. After a major, signature event, and team event, it’s back to a normal PGA Tour stop this week. No vibes meter this time, just a preview loaded with picks and insight to make you seem like the expert in your tee time.
Course Conditions
The model has gotten a few upgrades during the week off, but the underlying logic is the same.
The Ideal Player Profile
SG: Off the Tee – 0.614
SG: Approach – 1.051
SG: Around the Green – 0.411
SG: Putting – 0.838
New to strokes gained or how we build these profiles?
Check out our Tee to Green series to get up to speed before diving in.
TPC Craig Ranch is as wide open as four verts against Cover 2: players can just let it fly. Like Harbour Town two weeks ago, this is a ball-striker’s paradise, with one big difference. Misses off the tee at Hilton Head were heavily penalized, but in Dallas this week, you can fire away. Craig Ranch, being a TPC property, is a stadium course through and through, built for excitement and low scoring.
Pinseekers of the Week
Here are the players in the field who most closely match the ideal profile, with a score closer to 1 indicating a better fit:
Scottie Scheffler: 0.5700
Lee Hodges: 0.5412
Hayden Springer: 0.5335
Ryan Gerard: 0.5231
Ryo Hisatsune: 0.4650
Nicolai Højgaard: 0.4637
Jake Knapp: 0.4484
Ryan Fox: 0.4401
Sami Valimaki: 0.4398
Stephan Jaeger: 0.4356
This list is stacked with both elite ball-strikers and bombers, no surprise given the setup.
Do I even need to explain why Scottie Scheffler is at the top of the list? He’s been dominant the last few years, and with an SG: APP of +1.12 and SG: OTT of +0.71, his game matches up beautifully. He just needs to keep his recent uptick on the greens rolling.
Lee Hodges brings a solid, well-rounded game to Dallas, and he’s strongest in approach and putting, making him a good fit for the model. He hasn’t played since missing the cut in San Antonio, but that was a function of an absolutely brutal week on the greens.
Hayden Springer’s extra juice off the tee fits this week’s setup, helping cover for his otherwise lackluster SG numbers. Strongest in SG: APP and SG: PUTT, he’s a true boom-or-bust candidate at Craig Ranch.
Ryan Gerard has been a model darling in the past, and he’s playing some great golf this year with four top-20 finishes. He’s struggled with his irons at the past two events, however. It’ll be worth paying attention to see if he can reverse the trend.
Ryo Hisatsune and Nicolai Højgaard bring similar profiles this week, with solid ball-striking and short game struggles. If they can give themselves enough good looks at birdie, they just need to get hot with the putter to be a threat.
Jake Knapp’s distance off the tee is a major asset this week, but his accuracy could hold him back. Even on forgiving courses, mistakes still get punished, and no matter how well you putt, it's tough to make birdies from out of position.
Ryan Fox enters this week on the back of two rough performances, but was riding some strong play beforehand, especially with his irons. We’ll see if he takes advantage of the friendly setup in Dallas.
Sami Valimaki and Stephan Jaeger have eerily similar profiles, with very strong approach stats, solid putting, and woeful play off the tee. The difference is in their short games, with Jaeger having an SG: ARG of +0.27 compared to Valimaki’s -0.33.
Draws and Fades
The Pinseekers list highlights the ten best course fits based on the model. This section looks at the next players who didn’t quite make the top ten but still bring something worth watching. These are the draws: potential sleepers with upside. We’ll also take a look at the fades: a few players near the bottom of the fit rankings.
Draws:
Ben Griffin is an intriguing option this week. Coming off a win at the Zurich with Andrew Novak, Griffin is riding some solid ball-striking, especially with his irons.
Henrik Norlander ranks 6th on Tour in SG: APP, making him someone to watch despite mediocre to flat-out bad play in the other categories.
Jordan Spieth is always an entertaining watch and has been playing some solid golf, with three straight top-20 finishes and the SG numbers to back it up. He’s appointment viewing in his hometown this week, and I fully expect to see him in the most outrageous situations possible.
Fades:
Unlike his brother, Rasmus Hojgaard does not inspire confidence with his irons, ranking 146th on Tour in SG: APP. Not exactly what I’d consider a great fit this week.
Unfortunately for fan favorite Harry Higgs, his second appearance in the Pin Sheet doesn’t have a vibes meter. With an SG: APP of -0.97, the model does not like his chances to contend here in Dallas.
Despite quality approach play and a win on Tour already this year, Karl Vilips has struggled across the board in the other SG categories and could struggle this week.
Finishing Out
That’s everything on this week’s Pin Sheet. As a reminder, this model isn’t here to pick winners, it’s here to spotlight the players whose games line up best with what the course demands. Sometimes that means the obvious calls, like Scottie Scheffler, but other times it surprises us with names like Hayden Springer or Sami Valimaki. Either way, the goal is simple: to give you a better understanding of who’s set up to succeed and why, while also painting a clearer picture of what TPC Craig Ranch requires.
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Good luck this week, enjoy the birdie binge, and see you next time.