Pin Sheet: The Memorial Tournament

Hometown flair.

Welcome back to the Pin Sheet, our weekly data-informed preview of the PGA Tour.

This week, we’re in Dublin, Ohio, for the Memorial Tournament. I’ve been to the tournament several times, and it’s always a special week in Central Ohio. I know this course front to back. I’ve watched tense finishes from under the scoreboard on 18, posted up for hours on 12 and 16, and walked just about every yard of this course over the years. I know where to aim, where to miss, and where to find the most dramatic moments on Sunday.

This is going to be a unique Pin Sheet. As always, we’ll still dig into the data and the player fits. But we’re also slowing down to appreciate the design, the atmosphere, and a few holes that have shaped how I see the game.

As always, we’ll start with a recap of last week’s Tour stop: the Charles Schwab Challenge. Let’s get into it.

Checking Our Scorecard

1. Scottie Scheffler - T4(-8)

   1. Scottie found himself in uncharted territory this week: battling to stay inside the cut line. A 2-over round on Friday nearly sent him home, but a Saturday 64, where he posted a SG: APP of 3.37, shot him back up to the top of the leaderboard.

2. Harris English - T53(+1)

   1. English struggled with his irons, putting up an SG: APP for the week of -0.48. The putter couldn’t bail him out this week, and he never really got it going.

3. Bud Cauley - 3(-9)

   1. The Bud Cauley resurgence is back on. His fourth top six of the season gives him some great momentum heading into the Memorial Tournament, and he’ll look to make one of the year’s best stories even better at the place where it began.

4. Daniel Berger - MC(+2)

   1. I watched Berger’s round on Friday, and it was rough. He gave himself plenty of scoring chances, but just couldn’t convert. A spectacular 83-foot birdie putt gave him a glimmer of hope to make the cut, but it wasn’t enough, and he failed to capitalize anywhere else.

5. J.T. Poston - T36(-2)

   1. Poston got himself into the top 15 early on Sunday, but undid all his good work with a ball into the water on 9 and resulting triple bogey. He wasn’t able to recover after that.

6. Maverick McNealy - MC(+4)

   1. McNealy lost 1.7 shots with his irons, which is never a recipe for success at Colonial. Not much else needs to be said.

7. Brian Harman - T46(E)

   1. Harman started Sunday with a great chance at breaking into the top 20, but just never found momentum and finished with a four-over 74 to drop down the leaderboard.

8. Ryan Gerard - T73(+5)

   1. Another tough week for Gerard. He struggled heavily with the irons and putter this week en route to another disappointing performance. I’ve been paying attention to Gerard’s dip in form for the past few events, and it seems like I was right to be concerned. Unfortunately, his solid start to the season has faded away, and his strong PGA Championship may just be a flash in the pan.

9. Thorbjorn Olesen - T46(E)

   1. Olesen had no noteworthy statistics this week, probably why he ended up in the middle of the pack. Every one of his SG numbers was between -0.2 and .21 for the tournament.

10. Jordan Spieth - T36(-2)

    1. In a departure from his brand, Spieth gained almost a full stroke off the tee, but lost 0.52 with the flatstick. A 38 on his final nine of the tournament sank his chances at a solid finish.

Only two top-20 finishers mark a disappointing week, but we have updates in the pipeline, and if our backtest is anything to go by, they should be improvements for the future. We were able to pick three more top 20 finishes (J.J. Spaun, Ben Griffin, and Gary Woodland), and will be using this iteration going forward. It’s time to turn the page and take a look at what Muirfield has in store.

Course Conditions

Ideal Player Profile:

• SG_OTT: 0.540

• SG_APP: 1.353

• SG_ARG: 0.437

• SG_PUTT: 0.761

• DRIVING_DIST: 290.684

• DRIVING_ACC: 0.663

• GIR: 0.624

New to strokes gained or wondering how we build these profiles?
Check out our Tee to Green series to get up to speed before diving in.

Muirfield Village is tough.
Designed by the legendary Jack Nicklaus specifically to test the best players in the world, the course underwent a full renovation in 2020 because somehow he thought it was too easy. It’s a stereotypical championship course: penal, demanding, and tailor-made to amplify the pressure, all 7,569 yards of it.

Accuracy is at a premium here, and the 1.353 SG: APP proves it. The rough is thick, the bunkers are well-placed, and water lurks everywhere. Creeks snake along most holes, and both par-3s on the back nine force full carries over ponds. Hills around the greens and grandstands built for the tournament provide a stadium-like atmosphere all over the property. It’s designed specifically to make sure only the very best come out on top, exactly how Jack wants it.

Starting this week, you’ll see three new statistics in the Ideal Player Profile. We’re using driving distance, driving accuracy, and greens in regulation to help inform our model, helping us add some nuance, especially off the tee. Some courses favor bombers, others prioritize accuracy and placement. This helps us dissect course demands and focus on those statistics accordingly.

At Muirfield Village, the emphasis is squarely on driving accuracy and greens in regulation. This is a course that rewards control and punishes carelessness. If you can hit your spots, you’ll create scoring chances. Miss and Muirfield will make you feel the consequences.

I’ll admit, I was a little surprised to see driving distance come in as a relatively low factor in the model. But the more I thought about it, the more it checked out. Driver just isn’t the play on several key holes. Positioning beats power here. It’s not about how far you hit it. It’s about where you’re hitting your second from.

Yardage Book

This week’s Pin Sheet includes something special. As the course I know best on Tour, Muirfield Village deserves a closer look. Here are a few of my favorite holes, in numerical order, and why they stand out to me.

Hole 3: A funky little positioning hole

With a water hazard cutting the hole in two, you’ll see almost exclusively 3-wood or long irons off the tee, then a wedge into this green. It’s not a straightforward wedge either, with the water short and two bunkers lying in wait for anyone who overshoots the green.

It’s a fun test early in the round that sets the tone for what’s to come: precision, restraint, and total commitment.

Hole 5: My favorite hole on the entire course

The 547-yard par-5 presents a unique challenge, with a creek that cuts across the fairway and then splits it in two, wrapping in front of the green. Most of the field will lay back short of the water with less than driver, giving themselves a long iron in or setting up a layup. Long hitters may try to carry the creek and find the left side or flirt with the out-of-bounds line to the right. Pull it off, and you’re hitting a short iron or even wedge in with a chance at eagle. Otherwise, a penalty stroke is in your future.

Things don’t get any easier from there. The green is narrow and heavily protected, with two bunkers to the right that challenge anyone who bails out. Additionally, it features a bunker short and two more long of the green that force pinpoint accuracy with your approach.

Hole 12: A favorite among spectators, and for good reason

It’s modeled after the 12th at Augusta National, and you see the resemblance immediately. Bunkers are placed in nearly identical locations to its Georgian counterpart, and a pond fronts the entire green complex. Add in the natural amphitheater with hills behind the green and across the water, and you get one of the best viewing spots on the property.

Just like Augusta, this is all about the mental battle. It’s not that hard of a par-3, sitting at just 180 yards on the scorecard. The difficulty lies in the indecision it generates. Miss short and you’re wet. Go long and you’re chipping downhill from a bunker or tight lie to a slick green. Now do it all while battling scoreboard pressure and that siren flag.

Hole 14: The truest risk-reward hole on the course

The 360-yard par-4 is gettable, and players will go after it plenty this week. There’s no margin for error, with a drive needing to find a slender green that’s heavily bunkered on the left and guarded by a creek right.

Making things more complicated is the same creek cutting the fairway in half about 275 yards from the tee, meaning players have two distinct options: lay back short of the water and leave a wedge in, or take on the green with a driver or 3-wood. Neither option is easy. Even with a wedge, holding the green can be tricky, and missing puts you in trouble.

Hole 15: One of the few “birdie holes” at Muirfield Village

The 561-yard par-5 has played as the easiest hole on the course over the lifetime of this event, and it provides an opportunity for players to pick up shots before a brutal closing three holes.

This hole is uphill the entire way, adding extra length and making it just a bit tougher on players. A good drive clears the bunkers to the right and stays right of a creek running down the left (the same creek that runs along 14 green). From there, it’s a mid-to-long iron or even a wood into an alley of fairway and a green shielded by two bunkers and the creek short and right, another bunker short left, and a hill beyond the green that provides a great viewing experience but is a nightmare to try and get up and down from. If you can pay it off, it’s a key birdie (or even eagle) before trying to hold on like your life depends on it.

Hole 16: The second par-3 on the back nine does not disappoint

It has historically been one of the hardest holes here, sitting at 218 yards and bearing more than a passing resemblance to 16 at Augusta, right down to the bunker placements and water hazard fronting the hole.

A stand of bleachers behind the green provides great viewing, but my favorite spot is actually just short of the fairway. You get a really interesting angle of ball flights off the tee, and you’re even able to turn around and watch shots on 17 during lulls in the action. It’s must-see TV down the stretch on Sunday, as the leaders battle each other and the course.

Hole 18: One hell of a closer

18 has played as the hardest hole on the course since day one. Water runs down the left side, while three bunkers and a lone tree threaten a right miss. The landing zone is so pinched that most players opt for less than driver, usually a 3-wood. From there, it’s only a short iron to the green, but it’s straight uphill to a heavily fortified green complex. With a tight ribbon of fairway sandwiched between two bunkers, another bunker short left, and another behind the green, any miss means a whole lot of trouble.

This hole feels purpose-built for drama, and man, does it deliver. The hills surrounding the green are packed with fans on Sunday, and the clubhouse balcony creates an arena-like atmosphere. I’ve watched two playoffs unfold from under the scoreboard short and right of the green: Patrick Cantlay beating Collin Morikawa in 2021, and Viktor Hovland holding off Denny McCarthy in 2023. Both times, you could cut the tension with a knife, and the winning roar was euphoric.

It’s an absolute pressure cooker.

Pinseekers of the Week

Here are the players in the field who most closely match the ideal profile, with a higher score indicating a better fit:

1. Scottie Scheffler: 1.3109

2. Sepp Straka: 1.0207

3. Collin Morikawa: 1.0051

4. Justin Thomas: 0.9767

5. Xander Schauffele: 0.9713

6. Viktor Hovland: 0.9628

7. Shane Lowry: 0.9625

8. Daniel Berger: 0.9561

9. Bud Cauley: 0.9556

10. Corey Conners: 0.9438

This list is all about the irons, as every player in our top 10 fits ranks in the top 25 on Tour in SG: APP.

In news that will surprise exactly zero people, Scottie Scheffler is once again on top of the list. He leads the Tour in SG: APP and ranks second in SG: OTT, with excellent driving accuracy. A solid season on the greens sets him up perfectly to defend his title this week.

Sepp Straka is looking to bounce back from a missed cut at the PGA Championship, where his irons were uncharacteristically poor. If he can get them rolling again, he’ll be a real threat.

You know the scouting report on Collin Morikawa by now: excellent accuracy, short game struggles. His short game’s been on the upswing lately, though, which could bode well for him this week. Collin’s got a good history at Muirfield, too, with a win in the 2020 Workday Charity Open here (a one-off event held the week before the Memorial to replace the cancelled John Deere Classic during the COVID season), a playoff loss in 2021, and a runner-up finish last year.

Justin Thomas brings excellent iron play and short game to Central Ohio, but a driver that hasn’t exactly been the most accurate this season threatens to derail his tournament. If he can rein it in and give himself good looks, he’ll get plenty of scoring chances with the rest of his game.

Xander Schauffele had a slow start to the season, trying to battle back from a rib injury. He’s finding his form now, with strong iron play and a putter that’s starting to gain strokes after a rough first few events. He also has a good history here, with four top-20s in his five previous appearances at Muirfield.

Viktor Hovland has been outstanding with his irons this year, and solid driving accuracy helps his case, too. The 2023 Memorial Champion’s putter has blown hot and cold, but if it gets going, he could be sharing a celebratory handshake with Jack again on Sunday evening.

Shane Lowry and Daniel Berger have very similar profiles coming into this week: accurate off the tee, great irons, and mediocre short games. Lowry’s higher ranks give him the edge in fit this week, but I would not be surprised to see either of them at the top of the leaderboard.

Corey Conners ranks ninth on Tour in ballstriking this year (combined SG: OTT and SG: APP), with outstanding driver accuracy. With seven top-20s in his last eight starts, he’s in a groove this season, and if he keeps it up, he could be enjoying the victory milkshake at the end of the week.

I mentioned Bud Cauley being one of the best stories on Tour this year at the start of this Pin Sheet. It comes full circle at Muirfield this week.

In 2018, Cauley was a passenger in a car that crashed in a nearby residential neighborhood after the second round of the Memorial Tournament, where Cauley missed the cut. He broke multiple ribs, his leg, and suffered a collapsed lung in the accident. After trying to play here and there, he just wasn’t able to keep going and had to step away for three years to fully recover. He made his return at last year’s Waste Management Open and has rebuilt his game while competing on a medical exemption.

His play this year has been remarkable. He was ranked 303rd in the world at the start of the season, and now ranks 57th in the OWGR (Official World Golf Ranking) and 36th in the FedEx Cup standings.

Cauley ranks in the top 25 this season in both SG: APP and SG: PUTT, setting himself up well to succeed at Muirfield. I’m rooting hard for him this week.

Draws and Fades

The Pinseekers list highlights the ten best course fits based on the model. This section looks at the next players who didn’t quite make the top ten but still bring something worth watching. These are the draws: potential sleepers with upside. We’ll also look at the fades: a few players near the bottom of the fit rankings.

Draws

Patrick Cantlay has history here, winning twice at Muirfield. He ranks in the top 20 in both SG: APP and SG: OTT, which sets up well for a potential third Memorial win.

J.J. Spaun’s irons have been spectacular this season. Good driving accuracy and a solid putter certainly don’t hurt either.

Si Woo Kim has finished in the top 30 in his last four events, and his irons have been strong in all four. The putter is cooperating, and we’ll see if it stays that way this week.

Fades

Sahith Theegala is an unfortunate member of the Fades list this week. His tendency to spray it off the tee and a negative SG: APP for the season are just not a recipe for success at Muirfield.

Max Homa makes the list this week yet again. I held out hope that his irons were turning a corner after two strong weeks at the Masters and RBC Heritage, but it looks like that was just a blip. An SG: APP of -0.6 is never a good sign going into the Memorial.

Min Woo Lee is a whole lot of fun to watch, but fun isn’t necessarily a good thing here. His driver has been erratic to say the least, and an outstanding short game may not be enough to save him from his accuracy struggles both off the tee and with his irons, where his SG: APP is a rough -0.19.

Finishing Out

That’s everything on this week’s Pin Sheet. As a reminder, this model isn’t here to pick winners: it’s here to spotlight the players whose games line up best with what the course demands.

I’m really looking forward to this event, in case you couldn’t tell. Muirfield is a special place full of memories for me, and I hope I was able to give you a sense of that, along with our usual picks and analysis. This course is going to present a stiff, major-level test, and a complete performance will be needed to emerge from the week victorious.

Whether you’re here for the picks, the insights, or a new lens on golf, we'd love to have you along: please consider subscribing to follow along and leave any thoughts in the comment section.

Enjoy the week, good luck with any picks, and we’ll see you next Tuesday.

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