Pin Sheet: Travelers Championship

The final Signature Event of the year

Welcome back to the Pin Sheet, our weekly data-informed preview of the PGA Tour.

This week, we close out our Signature Event schedule in Connecticut at the Travelers Championship. There have been two playoffs here in the past five years: Scottie Scheffler beating Tom Kim on the first extra hole last year, and Harris English prevailing over Kramer Hickok after a whopping eight sudden-death holes in 2021. I certainly wouldn’t say no to another playoff, as long as it’s better than what we got at the Canadian Open.

Before we break this one down, we need to talk U.S. Open.

Checking Our Scorecard

1. Scottie Scheffler - T7(+4)

   1. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen Scottie more frustrated on a golf course. He gave himself plenty of chances, but missed an absurd number of short putts by his standards, especially with how he’s played this year. Even with all of that, he put up an SG: APP of 1.44 for the week and still finished in the top 10.

2. Joaquin Niemann - MC(+10)

   1. Niemann had a brutal two rounds with the driver, and that spelled doom and despair for the Chilean. Oakmont punishes misses off the tee like no other course.

3. Ben Griffin - T10(+5)

   1. Golfing Mew did it again, putting up decent numbers across the board and riding an SG: PUTT of 1.11 to his fourth consecutive top-10 finish. His great run of form continues, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him as a Pinseeker of the Week later on in this post.

4. Bryson DeChambeau - MC(+10)

   1. Turns out you cannot simply overpower Oakmont. In fairness to Bryson, he gained 1.24 shots off the tee but also lost 1.52 with his putter. Hard to overcome that.

5. Justin Thomas - MC(+12)

   1. I watched JT lip out two four-foot putts back to back as part of a four-putt double bogey early on Friday morning, and that was all I needed to see. He hit less than half his fairways in his two rounds, leaving him with a mountain he couldn’t climb.

6. Xander Schauffele - T12(+6)

   1. In typical Xander fashion, he was quietly solid across the board for the tournament. With every single SG number for the week between 0.4 and 0.7, he stayed steady and picked up another top 20.

7. Patrick Cantlay - MC(+8)

   1. Cantlay was on the right side of the cutline until the very end, when he dumped his tee shot on 18 into a bunker and was forced to pitch out sideways. The resulting bogey spelled the end of his week. An SG: APP of -0.84 makes it hard to believe he really had a chance at contention, regardless.

8. Tommy Fleetwood - MC(+9)

   1. Fleetwood really struggled off the tee. With an SG: OTT of -0.76 and iron play well below his norm, even a hot putter couldn't get him to the weekend. An SG: ARG of -0.70 didn’t help, either.

9. Jon Rahm - T7(+4)

   1. Rahm’s irons were on fire at Oakmont. An SG: APP of 1.91 and quality play off the tee gave him a chance, but the short game just couldn’t cash it out for Rahmbo. Still another quality performance in a major this year for the Spaniard.

10. Ryan Fox - T19(+7)

    1. Fox was again outstanding with the putter, and the irons stayed hot, helping him hold on to a top-20 finish in the year’s third major. The driver was uncharacteristically off, though, limiting his ceiling.

Even though we only had five made cuts this week, all five finished in the top-20, with three top-10s, which marks a pretty successful week for us. We are so back.

I’m going to take a bit of a victory lap here. Carlos Ortiz, who we had as a Draw and ranked 13th in our model, far better than his 56th-best odds at sportsbooks coming into the week, outperformed even our expectations with a T4 finish. Adding to that was our 15th-ranked player: Tyrrell Hatton. He finished T4 as well.

Who was 14th in the model, you may ask? J.J. Spaun. You know where he ended up.

Looks like the model might just know ball.

On to Connecticut.

Course Conditions

Ideal Player Profile:

• SG_OTT: 0.534

• SG_APP: 1.087

• SG_ARG: 0.377

• SG_PUTT: 1.000

• DRIVING_DIST: 287.355

• DRIVING_ACC: 0.717

• GIR: 0.811

New to strokes gained or wondering how we build these profiles?
Check out our Tee to Green series to get up to speed before diving in.

Unlike recent events, TPC River Highlands isn’t a particularly long course, sitting at only 6,844 yards for the par-70 layout, and our Ideal Player Profile shows it. Accuracy is the priority this week, with extremely high numbers for both driving accuracy and greens in regulation. Of course, a good putter always helps, especially with the scoring history here (more on that in a bit).

The course has an interesting design lineage, with origins dating back to 1928. It was redesigned by the great Pete Dye in 1982 and joined the TPC network in 1984, and then redone again a whole five years later in 1989. It’s been gradually worked on ever since, with the latest change coming in 2016, which updated the bunkers, greens, and tee boxes.

Despite the lack of length, this layout has some teeth to it, with thick rough, trees, and plenty of bunkers to catch misses. Even still, expect much lower scoring here, more in line with the Canadian Open than the U.S. Open or Memorial Tournament. It is where Jim Furyk shot his famous 58 in 2016, after all. With winning scores generally hovering around -20 (besides 2021, where -13 got you into the playoff), we should be in for more of a shootout this week.

The finishing stretch is really where TPC River Highlands shines, and it’s all centered around a massive pond.

15 is a textbook risk-reward hole: the drivable par 4 with trouble everywhere. It’s only 296 yards, but with water threatening the left miss and bunkers waiting for bailouts right, it’s not for the faint of heart. If you pull it off, you’ve got an eagle putt next to the floating umbrella and a chance to build serious momentum coming into the clubhouse.

16 is your classic par 3 over water, with bunkers left and right of a shallow green. Distance control needs to be absolutely perfect here.

17 effectively combines both previous holes. Your tee shot has to find a fairway with water running all the way down the right side and bunkers left, then your approach needs to cover the pond to a small green, all while taking wind and scoreboard pressure into account. This is the finish of the Golden Triangle, the three consecutive holes that wrap around the pond.

Finally, 18 is a classic finishing hole built for the fans. The fairway runs between two hills to a green complex fronted by two bunkers short and right. Hills and grandstands behind the green create a stadium experience and amplify the pressure, but opportunities will be available here. A good drive sets up a short iron or even wedge in, and players will be throwing darts here to chase a score. It’s all about the drama. Think the restaurant scene from The Godfather with birdies instead of murders (if you don’t get the reference, I can’t help you).

Pinseekers of the Week

Here are the players in the field who most closely match the ideal profile, with a higher score indicating a better fit:

1. Scottie Scheffler: 1.1334

2. Ben Griffin: 0.9648

3. Sepp Straka: 0.9369

4. Tommy Fleetwood: 0.9322

5. Ryan Fox: 0.9149

6. J.J. Spaun: 0.9114

7. Justin Thomas: 0.9041

8. Robert MacIntyre: 0.8903

9. Sam Burns: 0.8771

10. Nick Taylor: 0.8657

This list contains some of the hottest players on Tour as of late, along with some excellent iron players.

Explaining why Scottie Scheffler is at the top of the list almost feels insulting to him. His dominance over the last few years is extensively documented, and even in a week where it felt like he had nothing going, he still gained over three shots on the field at Oakmont. His driver accuracy is a big help here as well.

I did say Ben Griffin would show up later, didn’t I? The Tour breakout is on fire, and he’s gained over three strokes on the field over his last four events on average. I might need to start a Golfing Mew merch line at the rate he's going.

Sepp Straka ranks third on Tour this year in SG: APP, and he’s exceptionally accurate off the tee. That should be all the justification you need this week, even if he did lose two shots to the field in putting and miss the cut at the U.S. Open.

Just like Sepp, Tommy Fleetwood is one of the better iron players on Tour and accurate off the tee. He, too, is coming off a missed cut, but his putter’s been hot lately, and if he has his game, he could be a threat in Hartford.

Ryan Fox stayed hot with another great week at Oakmont, and he’s climbed to 18th in SG: APP this season. If his putter stays hot and he can dial in his driver, look for him at the top of the leaderboard.

Our newest U.S. Open champ makes an appearance here, and you had to see it coming. J.J. Spaun ranks eighth on Tour in ballstriking (combined SG: OTT and APP), and he’s got all kinds of momentum now. In fairness to Spaun, he might be a bit too busy celebrating to contend this week.

Justin Thomas makes the list thanks to his iron play, but he’s gonna need the driver to stop acting up, and fast. A quality putter gives him upside here, but only if he’s hitting his spots off the tee.

Robert MacIntyre and Nick Taylor have pretty similar statistical profiles, and they’re both playing solid golf. They’re both accurate with driver, but MacIntyre’s higher rank in SG: OTT makes him a more interesting proposition this week.

Sam Burns is still the best putter on Tour, and despite his season-long SG: APP of -0.09, the irons have been outstanding in his last three events, posting a 0.61, 1.01, and 1.83 in the statistic. Driver accuracy is the key stat for him this week, because if he can give himself a look, there’s a pretty good chance he’ll capitalize.

Draws and Fades

The Pinseekers list highlights the ten best course fits based on the model. This section looks at the next players who didn’t quite make the top ten but still bring something worth watching. These are the draws: potential sleepers with upside. We’ll also look at the fades: a few players near the bottom of the fit rankings.

Note: Corey Conners was originally listed as a Draw here, but withdrew shortly after the posting of this article due to a wrist injury suffered during the U.S. Open, which led to his withdrawal there as well. For what it’s worth, his replacement in the field (Jhonattan Vegas) is ranked 52nd by our model in the 70-man field, while Conners was ranked 11th. Conners has been replaced in the Draws list by Tony Finau.

Draws

Tony Finau’s irons have been rock-solid lately, and his short game isn’t too bad either. His swing stat is driving accuracy, because with his length off the tee and uptick in SG: APP (0.72 over his last five events and 1.05 over his last three), he could find himself with a lot of birdie opportunities if he keeps it in the fairway.

Akshay Bhatia ranks 11th in SG: PUTT and 22nd in SG: APP for the season. If he can hit fairways, look out for the lefty.

Andrew Novak quietly ranks inside the top 50 in total SG, and his irons have been quality lately. The driver’s been pretty accurate, making him an intriguing play in Connecticut.

Fades

Wyndham Clark has not been having a good time, with a best finish of T50 in his last five events. His irons have really struggled, too, and below-average driver accuracy could derail his week.

Min Woo Lee is a name I didn’t want to put on the Fades list, but his driver accuracy is wildly concerning here. He’s only had one week with a positive SG: APP since his win at the Houston Open in March, too, which makes him especially risky this week.

Sungjae Im is accurate off the tee, but his irons have been rough all season. He’s been a bit of a short game merchant in his good finishes, and that’s just too much of a boom or bust situation to be reliable.

Finishing Out

That’s everything on this week’s Pin Sheet. As a reminder, this model isn’t here to pick winners: it’s here to spotlight the players whose games line up best with what the course demands.

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One more thing: this week’s edition is the 10th Pin Sheet. I made this Substack as an easy way to share my model’s picks each week, and it’s grown into a project I’m proud of. Whether you subscribed to support a friend, you were talked into it, or you just enjoy my work, I appreciate you taking the time to read these every week. I’ve got plenty more coming.

Enjoy the week, good luck with any picks, and we’ll see you next Tuesday. Thanks for reading.

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