Pin Sheet: Truist Championship

A Tour first

Welcome back to the Pin Sheet, our weekly data-informed preview of the PGA Tour.

This week marks uncharted ground, as the Tour heads to the Philadelphia Cricket Club’s Wissahickon Course for the first time. While it hosted events for the Champions Tour and PGA of America in the past, this will be its debut on the PGA Tour. As a result, we need a different way to calculate our ideal player profile. In the absence of historical data, we’ll use tournaments played at courses with a shared designer and similar characteristics to sketch out the blueprint.

We’ll get into it more in our Course Conditions, but for now, let’s dive right in with a recap of the weekend and our picks in Dallas.

Checking Our Scorecard

1. Scottie Scheffler - 1(-31)

   1. I think it’s safe to say Scottie is back. With a scoring average of 63.25, he was straight-up dominant, cruising to his first win of the season by eight shots. So, when does he tee it up next? The PGA Championship. Good luck, rest of the field, because the only thing that might stop him is the Louisville PD.

2. Lee Hodges - MC(-3)

   1. Hodges just didn’t have it this week, going negative in three of the four SG categories and not making enough up in approach to counteract that.

3. Hayden Springer - MC(-1)

   1. Imagine your worst short game round ever, then imagine your second-worst short game round ever. That’s pretty much what happened to Springer, with an SG: ARG of -1.06 and SG: PUTT of -0.97 leading to his missed cut. A negative SG: APP didn’t help his cause either.

4. Ryan Gerard - MC(-4)

   1. Gerard struggled in the two specific categories he couldn’t afford to: approach and putting. There was no coming back from that one.

5. Ryo Hisatsune - MC(E)

   1. Remember what we said happened to Gerard? That’s exactly what happened to Hisatsune, just worse.

6. Nicolai Højgaard - T56(-6)

   1. Højgaard just couldn’t get it going, posting mediocre SG numbers across the board with a total SG of -0.63 for the week.

7. Jake Knapp - T39(-11)

   1. Knapp was outstanding off the tee and had decent iron play, but couldn't capitalize on the greens. An SG: PUTT of -0.22 and ARG of -0.21 limited his upside.

8. Ryan Fox - T60(-5)

   1. Fox had an SG: OTT of +0.7 and excellent driving accuracy all week, but that’s where the positives ended. With negative numbers in every other SG category, he was never truly a threat in Dallas.

9. Sami Valimaki - T39(-11)

   1. In a major twist, Valimaki’s irons were what let him down this week. The Finn had an SG: APP of -0.1, miles below his season-long average of +0.66 and his worst performance in the stat since the Waste Management in February.

10. Stephan Jaeger - T56(-6)

    1. Jaeger’s SG: APP of -0.93 should say it all. Hard to score when you’re not giving yourself looks, and at a tournament where so many people go low, you can’t waste any opportunities. Jaeger didn’t even give himself opportunities to waste.

No sugarcoating this one: it was a rough week for our picks. One top-20 finish (granted, it was a dominant win) is not what we look for at Pinseeker. But that’s golf for you: some days you’re on fire, some days you can’t hit a ball to save your life. It’s unpredictable, and that’s why we love it.

In the interest of transparency, we made some mid-week model improvements after publishing last week’s Pin Sheet, and the updated version identified three more top-20 finishers among its best fits (Jordan Spieth, Eric Cole, and Matt McCarty).

But that’s enough living in the past. We’ve got a tournament in Philly to preview.

Course Conditions

The Ideal Player Profile

• SG_OTT: 0.777

• SG_APP: 1.208

• SG_ARG: 0.543

• SG_PUTT: 1.009

New to strokes gained or how we build these profiles?
Check out our Tee to Green series to get up to speed before diving in.

We’ll need a brief history lesson to fully understand our ideal player profile this week.

The Wissahickon Course was designed by legendary architect A.W. Tillinghast in 1922. After decades of wear and tear, it underwent a major restoration in 2013. Famous for “The Great Hazard”, a massive hybrid cross bunker/waste area on the par-5 seventh hole (playing as hole 15 this week), the course contains many of Tillinghast’s classic design principles, including plentiful and highly strategic bunkering, small greens that require precision with your approach, and sloped, undulating putting surfaces.

To build the player profile, we used historical tournament data from other Tillinghast courses that have hosted Tour events in the past: Baltusrol, Bethpage Black, and Winged Foot. These three layouts all share Tillinghast’s signature design style, making them the best approximation we can build for the Truist this week.

So why aren’t we at Quail Hollow anyway? The answer is actually quite simple: it has to host next week’s PGA Championship. To avoid playing the same course twice in a row, which hasn’t happened since the minor inconvenience of a global pandemic (Muirfield Village Golf Club hosted the Workday Charity Open and Memorial Tournament back-to-back during the COVID-affected season in 2020), the Truist was reshuffled and ended up in Pennsylvania.

With that out of the way, let’s take a look at the profile. Tillinghast layouts are notoriously demanding tests of golf, mandating pinpoint accuracy and deft touch on and around the greens. There will be three putts and greenside struggles galore, just like your average Saturday at the local muni. The ideal player profile reflects that, with well-rounded players poised to succeed in Philly this week.

Pinseekers of the Week

Here are the players in the field who most closely match the ideal profile, with a higher score indicating a better fit:

1. Rory McIlroy: 0.8648

2. Russell Henley: 0.7259

3. Daniel Berger: 0.6989

4. Collin Morikawa: 0.6922

5. Justin Thomas: 0.6901

6. Justin Rose: 0.6835

7. Shane Lowry: 0.6479

8. Ryan Gerard: 0.6357

9. Patrick Cantlay: 0.6219

10. Sepp Straka: 0.6128

With the lowest player on this list ranking 31st in total SG this season, we’re looking at a group of exceptionally well-rounded players this week in Philadelphia. Iron play still reigns king at this old-school layout, though.

Rory McIlroy should surprise nobody, ranking first in strokes gained this year and coming off a historic victory at the Masters. He also ranks highest among our Pinseekers in SG: PUTT at 16th on Tour.

Russell Henley and Daniel Berger bring similar all-around games into this week, with Henley performing just a shade better across the SG categories for the year: 0.05 to 0.2 higher than Berger.

Collin Morikawa’s short game has been absolutely going through it lately: his best result in either SG: ARG or SG: PUTT was a -0.03 putting at Augusta. Brutal. His ball-striking on this second shot heavy layout makes him a player to watch, but he’s a risky play this week, barring a reversal of fortunes around the greens.

Justin Thomas’ strong iron play and short game land him on this list despite recent struggles off the tee: a near-mirror image of Morikawa, whose issues lie around the greens. He’s making his first start after a win of his own at Harbour Town.

Justin Rose has been buoyed by his putter even with a down week at the RBC Heritage, and he’ll be looking to avenge his second playoff loss at the Masters. Rose has blown hot and cold this year, with three top-10s balanced out by three missed cuts, making him a volatile but potentially rewarding pick.

Shane Lowry and Sepp Straka have eerily similar profiles, with both players ranking in the top 10 in SG: APP and middling stats elsewhere. The difference is Lowry’s +0.36 in SG: ARG compared to Straka’s -0.06.

Ryan Gerard will try to bounce back from a disappointing missed cut in Dallas, but with an SG: APP of -0.37 over his last four starts, he’ll need a serious turnaround with his irons to contend. He’s still here thanks to his strong start to the season, but I don’t know how much longer that will last. Until we see signs of life there, he’s a hard player to trust.

Patrick Cantlay has had excellent ball-striking all season, but his short game will need to cooperate to be a threat, which it hasn’t quite done the last few weeks.

Draws and Fades

The Pinseekers list highlights the ten best course fits based on the model. This section looks at the next players who didn’t quite make the top ten but still bring something worth watching. These are the draws: potential sleepers with upside. We’ll also take a look at the fades: a few players near the bottom of the fit rankings.

Draws

Corey Conners is putting together a quality season, with a well-rounded game and some great iron play in his last few starts. With five top-20 finishes in his last six starts, he's a player to watch this week.

Tom Hoge has been sneaky good with both his irons and the flatstick in recent events, and his accuracy off the tee is a major asset at Philadelphia Cricket Club.

Harris English has put up a total SG over +1 in three of his last four events, and he’s been solid on the greens all year. If his irons are dialed, look out.

Fades

Max Homa ends up on our Fades list again this season. Two solid weeks with his irons haven’t been enough to turn it around, especially with the rest of his game suffering too.

If a course prioritizes approach play, Cameron Young won’t exactly be a favorite of the model. With an SG: APP of -0.63, don’t be surprised if he struggles this week.

As much as it pains us to do this, we have to put Rickie Fowler on the Fades list. His game just hasn’t been working this year, and with only one top-20 in nine starts this year, it’s hard to see him contending.

Finishing Out

That’s everything on this week’s Pin Sheet. As a reminder, this model isn’t here to pick winners: it’s here to spotlight the players whose games line up best with what the course demands.

That holds more than ever this week, where we’re using design characteristics and course style rather than history or precedent. We’re especially excited to see how the Wissahickon Course plays in its PGA Tour debut: how it challenges players, rewards precision, and who gets stuck in the Great Hazard. However the Truist unfolds, we’ll be ready to break it down right here before moving on to our next event: The PGA Championship at Quail Hollow.

Whether you’re here for the picks, the insights, or a new lens on golf, we'd love to have you along: please consider subscribing to follow along and leave any thoughts in the comment section.

Good luck this week, enjoy the old-school golf, and see you next time.

Note: The content of The Pin Sheet is for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or betting advice. Always gamble responsibly, and only bet what you can afford to lose. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, please seek professional help.