Pin Sheet: U.S. Open

Golf's toughest test, at one of its classic venues

Welcome back to the Pin Sheet, our weekly data-informed preview of the PGA Tour.

This week, we’re at one of the most historic courses in America for one of its most historic events: the U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club. It’s been nine years since we last came here, and that visit featured Dustin Johnson finally breaking through a year after his biggest heartbreak and winning his first major, complete with a bit of rules controversy.

Anyways, who wants chaos? Oakmont is famously brutal, and this week looks set to more than live up to the moniker of “golf’s toughest test”, if social media clips are any indication. This is my favorite event on tour for exactly that reason: it truly is survival of the fittest, and you’ll need everything you’ve got to come out on top at the U.S. Open.

Before we get into it more, we have another national open to recap.

Checking Our Scorecard

1. Rory McIlroy - MC(+9)

   1. I’m still not sure what exactly happened here, but I know I don’t want to witness that ever again. Please lock in, Rory.

2. Sam Burns - 2(-18)

   1. Burns had an outstanding week, gaining over a shot on the field in both approach and putting. A final round 62 gave him the clubhouse lead for a while, before he eventually lost out in what might have been the most disappointing playoff I’ve ever seen (Don’t worry, I’ll elaborate).

3. Robert MacIntyre - T36

   1. MacIntyre had solid ballstriking for the week, but the short game just wasn’t working. A final round charge got him into the top 40, but he’ll be disappointed with his defense here.

4. Corey Conners - T27

   1. Like MacIntyre, solid ballstriking and a brutal short game last week. Conners lost almost half a shot on the field with his flatstick, but his irons and especially the driver were on fire, even if he wasn’t able to hold on to the Rivermead Cup.

5. Thorbjorn Olesen - T36

   1. Olesen had a great final round going. He started with an eagle on the opening hole and was -5 for the round through six holes. Unfortunately, it all fell apart with a triple on 17, the hardest hole on the course for the week, and Olesen dropped out of what would have been a top-20 finish.

6. Harry Hall - T24

   1. Hall’s short game for the week was excellent, gaining a combined 1.23 shots in SG: PUTT and ARG. His ballstriking was less than excellent, losing 0.23 shots to the field in Caledon. A bogey on 18 after he airmailed the green with his third dropped him out of the top 20.

7. Shane Lowry - T13(-12)

   1. Lowry’s start to his final round can only be described as bonkers. The man was -5 after four holes and tied the lead. He wasn’t able to keep that blistering pace up, though, and went +2 over his final 14 holes to finish T13. For the week, Lowry continued his season-long masterclass with the irons, gaining over two full shots in approach.

8. Eric Cole - MC(+4)

   1. I hate being right sometimes. I was worried about Cole coming into the week, and he lost 1.24 shots in approach and 1.5 in putting to miss the cut by seven shots.

9. Keith Mitchell - T27

   1. Mitchell actually played with Conners on Sunday, and just like Corey, Mitchell paired quality ballstriking with a poor short game. He gave himself plenty of opportunities to climb the leaderboard, but a misfiring putter meant he couldn’t capitalize.

10. Ryan Fox - 1(-18)

    1. Fox put on a show this week, gaining 1.73 shots in approach and 0.64 on the greens, including an unbelievably clutch 17-footer on 18 to force the playoff he won. That playoff was underwhelming to say the least, with Fox and Burns trading layups and pars on the par-5 18th before Fox hit a spectacular wood to seven feet to set up a two-putt birdie and the win on the fourth playoff hole. With the win, he became the first Kiwi to win twice in a season on the PGA Tour.

The two playoff participants, another in the top 20, and five other guys in the top 40, not too bad for us this week. We obviously still want better, and hopefully, we get just that in Pennsylvania.

Course Conditions

Ideal Player Profile:

• SG_OTT: 0.749

• SG_APP: 1.085

• SG_ARG: 0.661

• SG_PUTT: 0.880

• DRIVING_DIST: 301.279

• DRIVING_ACC: 0.592

• GIR: 0.670

New to strokes gained or wondering how we build these profiles?
Check out our Tee to Green series to get up to speed before diving in.

Oakmont Country Club is mission: survive. It’s the rare course that truly tests every single shot you hit. You need to be above average in distance and accuracy the whole way, and misses are heavily penalized. There’s actually zero penalty areas here, but absurdly thick rough and a whopping 168 bunkers, including the infamous Church Pew, are waiting to make you regret every single mistake. It exists exclusively to cause pain and suffering, with a side of misery. Players will need an exorcism when they’re done here.

This venue is full of history, having hosted this major nine times previously, and with a list of winners that includes names such as DJ, Nicklaus, Johnny Miller, Els, and Hogan.

It’s where the first 63 was ever shot in a major (by Miller, and the USGA was so upset about it that the next year’s U.S. Open was set up to be as diabolical as possible, causing the infamous “Massacre at Winged Foot”), and beyond the U.S. Open, it’s hosted three PGA Championships and two women’s Opens.

Course Tour

Oakmont doesn’t give you any time to settle into your round. The opening hole is the hardest on the course, and the scoring average on the 488-yard par-4 was nearly 4.5 in 2016.

If you survive that, you get to play a drivable par-4 before facing down the Church Pew on back-to-back holes. From there, you grind your way to the infamous 8th.

This 289-yard par-3 (not a typo, you will see driver pulled on a par 3 this week) is one of the longest in the world, and once again, survival is the key. Your reward for making it through that gauntlet? The second hardest hole on the course to finish the front nine.

The back nine isn’t any easier, with players having to scratch and claw their way through holes filled with history and misery, from Angel Cabrera’s famous 9-iron on 15 to Phil’s devastating four-putt on 10 to Larry Nelson’s 65-foot birdie putt on 16.

17 provides you with a rare birdie hole(one of four holes to play under par in 2016, along with the par-5 fourth, as well as the 13th and 14th, both of which played exactly 0.01 strokes under par).

To finish it all off, how does a 502-yard par-4 uphill the whole way sound?

Oakmont is going to do severe physical and emotional damage to every player in the field this week (besides maybe Scottie), and I can’t wait to watch it.

Pinseekers of the Week

Here are the players in the field who most closely match the ideal profile, with a higher score indicating a better fit:

1. Scottie Scheffler: 1.2490

2. Joaquin Niemann: 1.0450

3. Ben Griffin: 0.9745

4. Bryson DeChambeau: 0.9707

5. Justin Thomas: 0.9532

6. Xander Schauffele: 0.9201

7. Patrick Cantlay: 0.9160

8. Tommy Fleetwood: 0.9137

9. Jon Rahm: 0.9038

10. Ryan Fox: 0.8983

This list features both form and elite golfers, but stellar play off the tee is a common thread.

I don’t need to explain why Scottie Scheffler is here. The dude is on a heater to end all heaters, and he has to be the favorite this week.

Joaquin Niemann is excellent off the tee and even better with his irons. They’ve been on fire lately, and if he keeps it in the fairway, he could seriously threaten to win.

Ben Griffin has been on a tear, picking up a win at Colonial sandwiched by a solo second at the Memorial and a T8 at the PGA Championship. The putter is scorching hot, and his irons have been strong all year. Griffin ranks in the top 55 of every SG category this season, meaning if his golf game were a Pokémon, it would be Mew: quietly good across the board.

Bryson DeChambeau is defending his dramatic title from Pinehurst, and his distance should help at this mammoth layout. DeChambro will try to overpower the course in search of his third U.S. Open, just like he did at Winged Foot to win his first. He’s surprisingly good at scoring, with solid ARG and PUTT numbers as of late, and you have to like his chances at this brutish course.

Justin Thomas has been stellar with everything except his driver this year, which is a risky game to play here. If he’s hitting fairways, though…

Xander Schauffele ranks fifth on Tour in SG: APP and hits it long. Just like JT, accuracy is a concern, but he’s been working his way back into form since returning from his rib injury, and he could make a run this week.

Patrick Cantlay and Tommy Fleetwood are both top 10 in SG: Total and look pretty similar statistically, with Fleetwood ranking higher in the short game categories and Cantlay beating him out in the ball-striking. The importance of accuracy gives Cantlay the edge in fit here at Oakmont.

Jon Rahm has been excellent off the tee all year, especially in the accuracy department. His irons are on the rise, and he’s finished top 15 in the first two majors this year. If putts are falling, look out.

Ryan Fox is the last guy on this list, but the man is on fire. Two wins in his last four starts, along with a pair of top 30 finishes at stacked events (the PGA Championship and the Memorial), give him some serious momentum this week. He hits it long, the irons are working well, and never underestimate a confident player.

Draws and Fades

The Pinseekers list highlights the ten best course fits based on the model. This section looks at the next players who didn’t quite make the top ten but still bring something worth watching. These are the draws: potential sleepers with upside. We’ll also look at the fades: a few players near the bottom of the fit rankings.

Draws

• Carlos Ortiz has been hitting the ball well lately, with a field-adjusted SG: APP of 1.79, 0.44, 0.32, and 0.97 in his last four events. The driver has been good all year, and he has plenty of distance in the tank.

• Keegan Bradley hits it long and straight, a huge boost to his chances this week. The irons have been elite lately, a good recipe for Captain America at Oakmont.

• Maverick McNealy also has distance to spare with good accuracy. His irons have been at least decent all season, but a putter that’s blown hot and cold is what everything teeters on.

Fades

• Nick Dunlap hasn’t finished in the top 20 since the Genesis in February, and he has an SG: OTT of -1.57, with poor accuracy. It’s just a hard combination to trust at such a punishing course.

• Justin Rose has really been struggling off the tee, and his irons have fallen off a cliff, too. He’ll need a serious turnaround to contend here.

• Sungjae Im ranks second in SG: ARG, but 183rd in SG: APP. He has solid accuracy off the tee, but doesn’t hit it long, and his form lately has been a rollercoaster.

Finishing Out

That’s everything on this week’s Pin Sheet. As a reminder, this model isn’t here to pick winners: it’s here to spotlight the players whose games line up best with what the course demands.

The U.S. Open is special, man. It’s where the pros look like us on the weekends when they take three shots to chip onto the green or chunk shots from the rough 50 yards, just trying to get back to the fairway. It truly is golf’s toughest test, and it brings a unique experience to professional golf that you seldom see.

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Enjoy the week, good luck with any picks, and we’ll see you next Tuesday.

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